RunSwitch PR Releases Late October Political Survey

RunSwitch PR Releases Late October Political Survey
Rand Paul, Donald Trump lead with a week to go

(Louisville) RunSwitch Public Relations, Kentucky’s largest public relations firm, in partnership with research firm Cygnal, conducted a statewide survey of 811 likely Kentucky voters October 26-28. Voters were surveyed on both landlines and cell phones.

Presidential Race

The race for President in Kentucky is not close with Republican nominee Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton, 56 percent to 32 percent. The depths of Clinton’s troubles in Kentucky cannot be understated, especially in the rural parts of the state. Clinton is losing the media markets that cover Eastern Kentucky, 74 percent to 22 percent. In Western Kentucky Trump is winning big, 65 percent to 27 percent.

The most eye-popping statistic: Clinton is getting just 50 percent of Democrats, while Trump is winning 39 percent of his opposition party. Among Republicans, Trump leads Clinton 79 percent to 12 percent.

This survey was completed just hours before the news that Hillary Clinton’s emails are getting some fresh attention from the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

U.S. Senate Race

Incumbent Republican Rand Paul has a steady lead heading in to the final week of the campaign, beating his Democratic opponent Jim Gray 52 percent to 42 percent. While Gray is performing better than Clinton, he still has a steep hill to climb in what has been a rather sleepy campaign.

The rural parts of Kentucky are fueling Paul’s lead. Paul and Gray are essentially tied in the Louisville media market and in the Lexington and Cincinnati markets combined. But Paul leads by huge margins in Eastern Kentucky (59 percent to 36 percent) and Western Kentucky (64 percent to 32 percent).

Gray is doing better among Democrats than Clinton, but still is getting just 60 percent of his own party while Paul wins 33 percent of them. Paul is winning Republicans 75 percent to 19 percent. In the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Kentucky, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell won 91 percent of self-identified Republicans and 17 percent of Democrats during his route of Alison Grimes.

Generic Ballot for State House

A dominant political story line in Kentucky this year is Republican efforts to gain a majority in the Kentucky House of Representatives. The GOP has a strong lead on the generic ballot, a question that asks voters to select which party for which they intend to vote in their local state house race. The Republicans lead on the generic ballot, 50 percent to 37 percent.

While the Republicans enjoy a large advantage generically, the core political question is whether the current districts, drawn by Democratic majorities over the years, can withstand the pro-Republican environment.

View the survey toplines here and the survey crosstabs here.

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The survey was conducted by Cygnal, a research and targeted advertising firm with offices in Washington D.C., Alabama, and Texas. The survey was conducted among 811 likely voters by live callers, who reached 70 percent of the respondents on landlines and 30 percent on cell phones. 

If you would like to talk to RunSwitch and Cygnal about research needs, please call RunSwitch PR partner Scott Jennings at 502-649-3425 or Cygnal Partner Cory Brown at 571-733-6856. 

RunSwitch PR is a full-service firm providing a range of services including public affairs, public relations, and political consulting services to an impressive list of local, national, and international clients, including Amazon, Long John Silver’s, Kentucky Farm Bureau, Hilliard Lyons, and Dare to Care Food Bank. Along with being a Best Place To Work in 2015 and 2016, Louisville Business First ranked RunSwitch PR the number one PR firm in Kentucky, in 2014, 2015 and 2016.  For more information about RunSwitch PR and its team, visit www.runswitchpr.com or follow the firm on Twitter and Facebook.

Posted on October 31, 2016 in Uncategorized

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